{"id":65353,"date":"2021-04-28T17:17:08","date_gmt":"2021-04-28T09:17:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.zhushiyao.com\/?p=65353"},"modified":"2021-04-28T17:17:35","modified_gmt":"2021-04-28T09:17:35","slug":"d4540421f4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.zhushiyao.com\/?p=65353","title":{"rendered":"\u82f1\u56fd\u91d1\u878d\u65f6\u62a5\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u5373\u5c06\u62a5\u544a\u81ea1949\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u9996\u6b21\u4eba\u53e3\u4e0b\u964d"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"\u82f1\u56fd\u91d1\u878d\u65f6\u62a5\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u5373\u5c06\u62a5\u544a\u81ea1949\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u9996\u6b21\u4eba\u53e3\u4e0b\u964d\"<\/p>\n

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\u8bd1\u8005\u6ce8\uff1a<\/strong>\u539f\u6807\u9898\u4e0d\u51c6\u786e\uff0c\u56fd\u5bb6\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c1960-1962\u5e74\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u603b\u4eba\u53e3\u662f\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

<\/section>\n
China set to report first populationdecline since 1949
\n<\/span><\/section>\n
\u4e2d\u56fd\u5373\u5c06\u62a5\u544a\u81ea1949\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u4eba\u53e3\u4e0b\u964d<\/span><\/section>\n
\u00a0<\/span><\/section>\n
China is set to report its first populationdecline since records began in 1949 despite the relaxation of the government\u2019sstrict family planning policies, which was meant to reverse the falling birthrate of the world\u2019s most populous country.<\/span><\/section>\n
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\n<\/section>\n

\u5c3d\u7ba1\u653f\u5e9c\u653e\u5bbd\u4e86\u4e25\u683c\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\u751f\u80b2\u653f\u7b56,\u4ee5\u626d\u8f6c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u4eba\u53e3\u6700\u591a\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u51fa\u751f\u7387\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u00a0<\/span><\/section>\n
The latest Chinese census, which wascompleted in December but has yet to be made public, is expected to report thetotal population of the country at less than 1.4bn, according to peoplefamiliar with the research. In 2019, China\u2019s population was reported to haveexceeded the 1.4bn mark.<\/span><\/section>\n
\u636e\u77e5\u60c5\u4eba\u58eb\u900f\u9732,\u4e2d\u56fd\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u666e\u67e5\u5df2\u4e8e\uff082020\u5e74\uff0912\u6708\u5b8c\u6210,\u4f46\u5c1a\u672a\u516c\u5f00,\u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u62a5\u544a\u8be5\u56fd\u603b\u4eba\u53e3\u4e0d\u523014\u4ebf\u3002\u636e\u62a5\u9053,2019\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u53e3\u8d85\u8fc714\u4ebf\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u00a0<\/span><\/section>\n
The people cautioned, however, that thefigure was considered very sensitive and would not be released until multiplegovernment departments had reached a consensus on the data and itsimplications.<\/span><\/section>\n
\u7136\u800c,\u4eba\u4eec\u8b66\u544a\u8bf4,\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u654f\u611f\u7684,\u76f4\u5230\u591a\u4e2a\u653f\u5e9c\u90e8\u95e8\u5728\u6570\u636e\u53ca\u5176\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0a\u8fbe\u6210\u5171\u8bc6\u540e\u624d\u4f1a\u516c\u5e03\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u00a0<\/span><\/section>\n
\u201cThe census results will have a huge impacton how the Chinese people see their country and how various governmentdepartments work,\u201d said Huang Wenzheng, a fellow at the Center for China andGlobalization, a Beijing-based think-tank. \u201cThey need to be handled verycarefully.\u201d<\/span><\/section>\n
\u5317\u4eac\u667a\u5e93\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0e\u5168\u7403\u5316\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5458HWZ\u8868\u793a:\u201c\u4eba\u53e3\u666e\u67e5\u7ed3\u679c\u4f1a\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u6c11\u5982\u4f55\u770b\u5f85\u672c\u56fd\u548c\u653f\u5e9c\u90e8\u95e8\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u4ea7\u751f\u5de8\u5927\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u201d\u201c\u4ed6\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u975e\u5e38\u5c0f\u5fc3\u5730\u5904\u7406\u3002\u201d<\/span><\/section>\n
\u00a0<\/span><\/section>\n
The government was scheduled to release thecensus in early April. Liu Aihua, a spokesperson at the National Bureau ofStatistics, said on April 16 that the delay was partly due to the need for\u201cmore preparation work\u201d ahead of the official announcement. The delay has beenwidely criticised on social media.<\/span><\/section>\n
\u653f\u5e9c\u539f\u8ba1\u5212\u4e8e4\u6708\u521d\u516c\u5e03\u4eba\u53e3\u666e\u67e5\u7ed3\u679c\u30024\u670816\u65e5\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\u53d1\u8a00\u4eba\u5218\u7231\u534e\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u63a8\u8fdf\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u9700\u8981\u5728\u6b63\u5f0f\u53d1\u5e03\u524d\u505a\u201c\u66f4\u591a\u51c6\u5907\u5de5\u4f5c\u201d\u3002\u8fd9\u5728\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u4f53\u4e0a\u53d7\u5230\u4e86\u5e7f\u6cdb\u6279\u8bc4\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u00a0<\/span><\/section>\n
Local officials have also braced for thedata\u2019s release. Chen Longgan, deputy director of Anhui province\u2019s statisticsbureau, said in a meeting this month that officials should \u201cset the agenda\u201d forcensus interpretation and \u201cpay close attention to public reaction\u201d.<\/span><\/section>\n
\u5730\u65b9\u5b98\u5458\u4e5f\u505a\u597d\u4e86\u6570\u636e\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u51c6\u5907\u3002\u5b89\u5fbd\u7701\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\u526f\u5c40\u957fCLG\u5728\u672c\u6708\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5b98\u5458\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u4e3a\u4eba\u53e3\u666e\u67e5\u89e3\u91ca\u201c\u5236\u5b9a\u8bae\u7a0b\u201d\uff0c\u5e76\u201c\u5bc6\u5207\u5173\u6ce8\u516c\u4f17\u53cd\u5e94\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u00a0<\/span><\/section>\n
Analysts said a decline would suggest thatChina\u2019s population could peak earlier than official projections and could soonbe exceeded by India\u2019s, which is estimated at 1.38bn. That could take anextensive toll on the world\u2019s second-largest economy, affecting everything fromconsumption to care for the elderly.<\/span><\/section>\n
\u5206\u6790\u4eba\u58eb\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\u4e0b\u964d\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u53e3\u5cf0\u503c\u53ef\u80fd\u65e9\u4e8e\u5b98\u65b9\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u53ef\u80fd\u5f88\u5feb\u88ab\u5370\u5ea6\u4eba\u53e3\u8d85\u8fc7\u3002\u636e\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u4eba\u53e3\u4e3a13.8\u4ebf\u3002\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u9020\u6210\u5de8\u5927\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u5f71\u54cd\u4ece\u6d88\u8d39\u5230\u517b\u8001\u7684\u65b9\u65b9\u9762\u9762\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u00a0<\/span><\/section>\n
\u201cThe pace and scale of China\u2019s demographiccrisis are faster and bigger than we imagined,\u201d said Huang. \u201cThat could have adisastrous impact on the country.\u201d<\/span><\/section>\n
\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u53e3\u5371\u673a\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u548c\u89c4\u6a21\u90fd\u6bd4\u6211\u4eec\u60f3\u8c61\u7684\u66f4\u5feb\u3001\u66f4\u5927\uff0c\u201dH\u8bf4\u3002\u201c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u7ed9\u8fd9\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5e26\u6765\u707e\u96be\u6027\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u201d<\/span><\/section>\n
\u00a0<\/span><\/section>\n
China\u2019s birth rates have weakened evenafter Beijing relaxed its decades-long family planning policy in 2015, allowingall couples to have two children instead of one. The population expanded under the one-child policy introduced in the late 1970s, thanks to a bulging population of young people in the aftermath of the Communist revolution as wellas increased life expectancy.<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u00a0<\/span><\/section>\n
Official data showed the number of newbornsin China increased in 2016 but then fell for three consecutive years. Officialsblamed the decline on a shrinking number of young women and the surging costsof child-rearing.<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u00a0<\/span><\/section>\n
The real picture could be even worse. In areport published last week, China\u2019s central bank estimated that the totalfertility rate, or the average number of children a woman was likely to have inher lifetime, was less than 1.5, compared with the official estimate of 1.8.<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u00a0<\/span><\/section>\n
\u201cIt is almost a fact that China hasoverestimated its birth rate,\u201d the People\u2019s Bank of China said. \u201cThe challengesbrought about by China\u2019s demographic shift could be bigger [than expected].\u201d<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u00a0<\/span><\/section>\n
A Beijing-based government adviser whodeclined to be identified said such overestimates stemmed in part from thefiscal system\u2019s use of population figures to determine budgets, including foreducation and public security.<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u00a0<\/span><\/section>\n
\u201cThere is an incentive for localgovernments to play up their [population] numbers so they can get moreresources,\u201d the person said.<\/span><\/section>\n
\u8fd9\u4f4d\u4eba\u58eb\u8868\u793a:\u201c\u5730\u65b9\u653f\u5e9c\u6709\u52a8\u529b\u5938\u5927\u5176(\u4eba\u53e3)\u6570\u91cf\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u83b7\u5f97\u66f4\u591a\u8d44\u6e90\u3002\u201d<\/span><\/section>\n
\u00a0<\/span><\/section>\n
The situation has led to calls for aradical overhaul of China\u2019s birth control rules. The PBoC report suggested thegovernment should \u201ccompletely\u201d abandon its \u201cwait-and-see attitude\u201d and scrapfamily planning entirely.<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u00a0<\/span><\/section>\n
\u201cPolicy relaxations will be of little usewhen no one wants to have [more children],\u201d the paper said.<\/span><\/section>\n
\u8be5\u62a5\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u5f53\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u60f3\u8981(\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u5b69\u5b50)\u65f6\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u653e\u677e\u5c06\u6beb\u65e0\u7528\u5904\uff0c\u201d<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

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