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\n

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02<\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\u51b3\u5b9a\u4f55\u65f6\u5356\u7684\u771f\u6b63\u5927\u95ee\u9898<\/span>
\n<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n

\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6709\u4e9b\u80a1\u7968\u786e\u5b9e\u9002\u5408\u201c\u6301\u6709\u201d\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u4f60\u572810\u5757\u94b1\u65f6\u4e70\u5165\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u6da8\u5230\u4e8620\uff0c\u4f60\u91cd\u65b0\u8bc4\u4f30\u540e\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u4f60\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u4ef7\u662f20\uff0c\u800c\u73b0\u5728\u4f60\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u8fd8\u80fd\u6da8\u523025\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u4f60\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4e3a\u4e86\u4ece20\u6da8\u523025\u800c\u53bb\u65b0\u4e70\u5165\u5b83\uff0c\u4f46\u4f60\u4ecd\u7136\u89c9\u5f97\u4ece20\u523025\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\u8db3\u591f\u5438\u5f15\u4eba\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u7ee7\u7eed\u6301\u6709\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u50cf\u662f\u6a59\u5b50\u91cc\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u70b9\u679c\u6c41\uff0c\u4f60\u8fd8\u80fd\u518d\u69a8\u51fa\u4e00\u4e9b\u6765\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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03\u200d<\/span><\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\u5e02\u573a\u603b\u4f1a\u53cd\u5e94\u8fc7\u5ea6\uff0c\u4e3a\u6295\u8d44\u521b\u9020\u673a\u4f1a<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h1>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/h1>\n
\u5e03\u9c81\u5c14\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u4f60\u63d0\u5230\u8fc7\u827e\u5c14\uff08Alphonse Karr\uff09\u7684\u4e00\u53e5\u8bdd\uff1a\u201c\u5386\u53f2\u4e0d\u4f1a\u91cd\u590d\uff0c\u4f46\u4eba\u7c7b\u603b\u662f\u4f1a\u91cd\u8e48\u8986\u8f99\u3002\u201d\u90a3\u4f60\u662f\u5426\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7531\u8d2a\u5a6a\u4e0e\u6050\u60e7\u4ea4\u66ff\u63a8\u52a8\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u5c06\u4f1a\u4e00\u76f4\u6301\u7eed\u4e0b\u53bb\uff1f\u8fd9\u662f\u5426\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u603b\u662f\u4f1a\u53cd\u5e94\u8fc7\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u7ed9\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u521b\u9020\u673a\u4f1a\uff1f<\/span><\/section>\n
\u970d\u534e\u5fb7<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0\u4f60\u8bf4\u7684\u5bf9\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u6211\u5728\u300a\u5468\u671f\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\u4e2d\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u662f\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u6c38\u8fdc\u90fd\u4f1a\u6709\u5468\u671f\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5468\u671f\u6e90\u81ea\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u8fc7\u5ea6\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8fc7\u5ea6\u884c\u4e3a\u6700\u7ec8\u90fd\u4f1a\u88ab\u4fee\u6b63\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8fc7\u5ea6\u884c\u4e3a\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u7531\u60c5\u7eea\u548c\u5fc3\u7406\u56e0\u7d20\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u2014\u2014\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u8d2a\u5a6a\u3001\u6050\u60e7<\/strong>\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u5176\u4ed6\u4efb\u4f55\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u672f\u8bed\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u5e76\u4e0d\u5267\u70c8\uff0cGDP\u53ef\u80fd\u4e00\u5e74\u589e\u957f1%\u30012%\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u4e0b\u4e00\u5e74\u4e0b\u964d 1%\uff0c\u518d\u589e\u957f3%\u3002\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u76c8\u5229\u6ce2\u52a8\u5e45\u5ea6\u7565\u5927\u4e00\u4e9b\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f5%\u621610%\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u516c\u53f8\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5b83\u4eec\u901a\u5e38\u6709\u8fd0\u8425\u6760\u6746\u548c\u8d22\u52a1\u6760\u6746\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u4f46\u80a1\u5e02\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u5374\u8fdc\u8d85\u7ecf\u6d4e\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5927\u6da850%\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u66b4\u8dcc50%\uff1b\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u7ffb\u500d\u518d\u8170\u65a9\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u8981\u8fdc\u8fdc\u8d85\u8fc7\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u4f01\u4e1a\u76c8\u5229\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\u8fd9\u4e48\u5927\uff1f\u56e0\u4e3a\u60c5\u7eea\u4f5c\u795f\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u4eba\u4eec\u603b\u662f\u8fc7\u5ea6\u5174\u594b\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u53c8\u8fc7\u5ea6\u60b2\u89c2\u3002\u6211\u8fd8\u5199\u8fc7\u4e00\u7bc7\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\uff0c\u6807\u9898\u662f\u300a\u5fc3\u7406\u6cbb\u7597\u300b\uff08On the Couch\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5e02\u573a\u65f6\u4e0d\u65f6\u9700\u8981\u53bb\u770b\u5fc3\u7406\u533b\u751f\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u5728\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u91cc\uff0c\u60c5\u51b5\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u5728\u201c\u76f8\u5f53\u4e0d\u9519\u201d\u548c\u201c\u4e0d\u662f\u90a3\u4e48\u597d\u201d\u4e4b\u95f4\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002\u4f46\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u4e2d\uff0c\u60c5\u51b5\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u5728\u201c\u5b8c\u7f8e\u65e0\u7455\u201d\u548c\u201c\u6beb\u65e0\u5e0c\u671b\u201d\u4e4b\u95f4\u5207\u6362\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u5f53\u4eba\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u201c\u5b8c\u7f8e\u65e0\u7455\u201d\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u8fc7\u5ea6\u60c5\u7eea\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u4f1a\u5bf9\u6b64\u8fdb\u884c\u4fee\u6b63\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e0d\u5e94\u8be5\u6709\u8fd9\u79cd\u6781\u7aef\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u4f46\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u6a21\u5f0f\u5374\u5f80\u5f80\u4ece\u201c\u7406\u6027\u201d\u8d70\u5411\u201c\u7edd\u671b\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u201c\u6beb\u65e0\u5e0c\u671b\u201d\u540c\u6837\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u6781\u7aef\u7684\u60c5\u7eea\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u4f46\u4e8b\u5b9e\u5f80\u5f80\u4ecb\u4e8e\u4e24\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u800c\u53ea\u8981\u662f\u4eba\u7c7b\u5728\u51b3\u5b9a\u8bc1\u5238\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u4f1a\u6301\u7eed\u7ecf\u5386\u4e50\u89c2\u548c\u60b2\u89c2\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u60c5\u7eea\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f1a\u5236\u9020\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u800c\u90a3\u4e9b\u5934\u8111\u51b7\u9759\u7684\u4eba\u5c31\u80fd\u4ece\u4e2d\u83b7\u5229\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u00a0<\/span><\/section>\n
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04<\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\u8981\u4fdd\u6301\u201c\u667a\u8bc6\u4e0a\u7684\u8c26\u900a\u201d<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n
\u5e03\u9c81\u5c14\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u4f60\u66fe\u8bf4\u8fc7\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u4f60\u4f1a\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u91cc\u7981\u6b62\u4ee5\u4e0b\u8bcd\u6c47\uff1a\u201c\u7edd\u4e0d\u201d\u3001\u201c\u603b\u662f\u201d\u3001\u201c\u6c38\u8fdc\u201d\u3001\u201c\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u201d\u3001\u201c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u201d\u3001\u201c\u4e00\u5b9a\u201d\u548c\u201c\u5fc5\u987b\u201d\u3002\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8bcd\u662f\u201c\u7f6a\u9b41\u7978\u9996\u201d\uff1f<\/span><\/section>\n
\u970d\u534e\u5fb7<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u90fd\u662f\u7edd\u5bf9\u7684\uff0c\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u4e00\u79cd\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u800c\u6211\u575a\u4fe1\uff0c\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u884c\u4e1a\u91cc\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5145\u6ee1\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u6211\u5bf9\u660e\u5929\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e8b\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u4e00\u70b9\u70b9\u6982\u5ff5\u3002\u6211\u5bf9\u4e00\u5e74\u540e\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u4e9b\u731c\u6d4b\u3002\u4f46\u6211\u7edd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8ba4\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u80fd\u767e\u5206\u4e4b\u767e\u786e\u5b9a\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u600e\u4e48\u4f1a\u6709\u4eba\u6562\u8bf4\u201c\u5fc5\u987b\u201d\u6216\u201c\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u201d\u5462\uff1f\u6216\u8005\u201c\u603b\u662f\u201d\u6216\u201c\u6c38\u8fdc\u201d\u5462\uff1f<\/span><\/section>\n
\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u6301\u8fd9\u79cd\u60f3\u6cd5\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u90fd\u4f1a\u9677\u5165\u9ebb\u70e6\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u9a6c\u514b\u00b7\u5410\u6e29\u6709\u53e5\u6781\u4e3a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u662f\uff1a\u201c\u8ba9\u4f60\u9677\u5165\u9ebb\u70e6\u7684\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u4f60\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u7684\u4e8b\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4f60\u786e\u4fe1\u65e0\u7591\u3001\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5e76\u975e\u5982\u6b64\u7684\u4e8b\u3002\u201d<\/span><\/section>\n
\u4e0d\u61c2\u67d0\u4e9b\u4e8b\u60c5\u672c\u8eab\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u9519\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u4eca\u5929\u5348\u9910\u65f6\u521a\u548c\u4e00\u4e2a\u540c\u4e8b\u804a\u5230\uff0c\u6211\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u4e8b\u60c5\u4e0d\u61c2\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u800c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6210\u529f\u7684\u5173\u952e\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u6240\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u8981\u6781\u5176\u8bda\u5b9e\u548c\u5766\u7387\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u4f60\u624d\u4e0d\u4f1a\u9677\u5165\u9ebb\u70e6\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u5982\u679c\u6211\u8981\u4ece\u4f26\u6566\u5f00\u8f66\u53bb\u5229\u5179\uff0c\u6211\u4f1a\u600e\u4e48\u505a\uff1f\u6211\u4f1a\u62ff\u4e00\u5f20\u5730\u56fe\uff0c\u6253\u5f00 GPS\uff0c\u95ee\u8def\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u6162\u6162\u5f00\u8f66\uff0c\u786e\u4fdd\u81ea\u5df1\u4e0d\u4f1a\u9519\u8fc7\u51fa\u53e3\u3002\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u6211\u81ea\u4ee5\u4e3a\u77e5\u9053\u8def\uff0c\u6211\u5c31\u4e0d\u4f1a\u62ff\u5730\u56fe\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5f00 GPS\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u95ee\u8def\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u81ea\u4fe1\u6ee1\u6ee1\u5730\u72c2\u98d9\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u5982\u679c\u4e8b\u5b9e\u8bc1\u660e\u6211\u9519\u4e86\uff0c\u6211\u6700\u7ec8\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5f00\u5230\u5fb7\u6587\u90e1\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u5e03\u9c81\u5c14\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0 \u4f60\u521a\u521a\u51e0\u4e4e\u7cbe\u51c6\u5730\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u6211\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u4e0d\u5e78\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u5c31\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u4eba\u3002\u6211\u771f\u5e0c\u671b\u5728\u6211\u5f88\u4e45\u4ee5\u524d\u521a\u8fdb\u5165\u82b1\u65d7\u94f6\u884c\u65f6\uff0c\u6709\u4eba\u7ed9\u6211\u4e00\u7bc7\u4f60\u7684\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u6211\u8bb0\u5f97\u6709\u79cd\u8bf4\u6cd5\uff0c\u6709\u4e24\u79cd\u4eba\u6700\u5bb9\u6613\u60f9\u4e0a\u9ebb\u70e6\uff1a\u4e00\u79cd\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u90fd\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u662f\u81ea\u4ee5\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u90fd\u77e5\u9053\u7684\u4eba\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u970d\u534e\u5fb7<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0\u6ca1\u9519\u3002\u8ba4\u4e3a\u201c\u6211\u4ec0\u4e48\u90fd\u4e0d\u61c2\u201d\u540c\u6837\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u597d\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u89c9\u5f97\u81ea\u5df1\u4e00\u65e0\u6240\u77e5\uff0c\u4f60\u663e\u7136\u65e0\u6cd5\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9762\u5411\u672a\u6765\u7684\u884c\u4e1a\u4e2d\u53d6\u5f97\u6210\u529f\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u5854\u52d2\u5e03\u5728\u300a\u968f\u673a\u6f2b\u6b65\u7684\u50bb\u74dc\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\u4e2d\u66fe\u8bf4\u8fc7\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4e0d\u64c5\u957f\u5904\u7406\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u4f60\u6700\u597d\u53bb\u5f53\u7259\u533b\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u5728\u4ed6\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u7259\u533b\u5b66\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4ec0\u4e48\u90fd\u4e0d\u61c2\uff0c\u90a3\u4f60\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6210\u529f\u3002\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u89c9\u5f97\u81ea\u5df1\u65e0\u6240\u4e0d\u77e5\uff0c\u540c\u6837\u4e5f\u4e0d\u6210\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u4eba\u4e0d\u4f1a\u542c\u53d6\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5bf9\u51b2\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5b64\u6ce8\u4e00\u63b7\uff0c\u628a\u6240\u6709\u7b79\u7801\u90fd\u62bc\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u9009\u62e9\u4e0a\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u8ba9\u4ed6\u4eec\u88ab\u5e02\u573a\u6dd8\u6c70\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u6211\u975e\u5e38\u76f8\u4fe1\u4e00\u79cd\u53eb\u505a\u201c\u667a\u8bc6\u4e0a\u7684\u8c26\u900a\u201d\u7684\u7406\u5ff5\u3002\u7b80\u5355\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u667a\u8bc6\u4e0a\u7684\u8c26\u900a\u5c31\u662f\u627f\u8ba4\uff1a\u5bf9\u65b9\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5bf9\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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05<\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\u4f60\u65e0\u6cd5\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u4f46\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u505a\u597d\u51c6\u5907<\/span><\/strong><\/h1>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/h1>\n
\u5e03\u9c81\u5c14\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u8fd9\u4e5f\u5f15\u51fa\u4e86\u4f60\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u7bc7\u975e\u5e38\u7cbe\u5f69\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u2014\u2014\u300a\u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u5e7b\u89c9\u300b\uff08The Illusion of Knowledge\uff09\u3002\u6211\u60f3\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u4f60\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6709\u54ea\u4e9b\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u3001\u60c5\u666f\u6a21\u62df\u6216\u6218\u7565\u89c4\u5212\u662f\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\uff1f<\/span><\/section>\n
\u970d\u534e\u5fb7<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0\u6211\u57282002\u5e74\u5de6\u53f3\u5199\u8fc7\u4e00\u7bc7\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\uff0c\u6807\u9898\u662f\u300a\u4f60\u65e0\u6cd5\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u4f46\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u505a\u597d\u51c6\u5907\u300b\uff08You Can\u2019t Predict, You Can Prepare\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u8fd9\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u6211\u4ece\u4eba\u5bff\u4fdd\u9669\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u4e00\u53e5\u5e7f\u544a\u8bed\u4e2d\u501f\u7528\u7684\uff0c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u53e5\u8bdd\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u542f\u53d1\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u7b54\u6848\u662f\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u8ba4\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u77e5\u9053\u672a\u6765\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u90a3\u4f60\u5c31\u662f\u4e2a\u50bb\u74dc\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u201c\u51c6\u5907\u201d\u5e76\u4e0d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u9488\u5bf9\u67d0\u4e00\u4e2a\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u505a\u51c6\u5907\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u8981\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u4e2a\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\uff0c\u6216\u91c7\u7528\u4e00\u79cd\u751f\u6d3b\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u4f7f\u81ea\u5df1\u80fd\u591f\u5e94\u5bf9\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u8fd9\u624d\u662f\u6210\u529f\u7684\u5173\u952e\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u4f46\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u884c\u4e1a\u91cc\uff0c\u592a\u591a\u4eba\u559c\u6b22\u8bf4\uff1a\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f1a\u8fd9\u6837\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u4f1a\u8fd9\u6837\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u4f1a\u8fd9\u6837\u8d70\u5411\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u884c\u4e1a\u4f1a\u5982\u4f55\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\u2026\u2026<\/span><\/section>\n
\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u80fd\u628a\u8fd9\u4e94\u4ef6\u4e8b\u90fd\u9884\u6d4b\u5bf9\u4e86\uff0c\u4f60\u5c31\u80fd\u50cf\u5415\u5e95\u4e9a\u56fd\u738b\u514b\u6d1b\u4f0a\u7d22\u65af\u4e00\u6837\u5bcc\u6709\u3002\u4f46\u8bf7\u95ee\uff0c\u4f60\u9884\u6d4b\u8fd9\u4e94\u4ef6\u4e8b\u5168\u90fd\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u6982\u7387\u6709\u591a\u5927\uff1f<\/span><\/section>\n
\u6211\u79f0\u8fd9\u79cd\u7b56\u7565\u4e3a\u201c\u5355\u4e00\u60c5\u666f\u6295\u8d44\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5145\u6ee1\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u91cc\uff0c\u53ea\u4e3a\u5355\u4e00\u7ed3\u679c\u505a\u51c6\u5907\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u9519\u8bef\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u552f\u4e00\u80fd\u505a\u7684\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u4e3a\u591a\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u505a\u597d\u51c6\u5907\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
\u6211\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u6784\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\uff0c\u4f7f\u5176\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6700\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u8868\u73b0\u826f\u597d\uff1b\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u8868\u73b0\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u592a\u7cdf\u7cd5\uff1b\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u90a3\u4e9b\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u906d\u53d7\u6bc1\u706d\u6027\u6253\u51fb\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u4f46\u8fd9\u5e76\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u6295\u8d44\u7b56\u7565\u80fd\u591f\u8ba9\u4f60\u5728\u6240\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\u90fd\u505a\u5230\u6700\u4f73\u51c6\u5907\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u4f60\u5fc5\u987b\u95ee\u81ea\u5df1\uff1a\u6211\u5e94\u8be5\u4e3a\u54ea\u4e9b\u60c5\u5883\u505a\u51c6\u5907\uff1f\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u54ea\u4e9b\u60c5\u5883\u6700\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\uff1f\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u60c5\u5883\u505a\u597d\u51c6\u5907\uff0c\u6211\u80fd\u8d5a\u5230\u4e0d\u9519\u7684\u94b1\u5417\uff1f\u53c8\u6709\u54ea\u4e9b\u60c5\u5883\u662f\u6211\u53ef\u4ee5\u5ffd\u7565\u3001\u4e0d\u5fc5\u4e13\u95e8\u4e3a\u5176\u505a\u51c6\u5907\u7684\uff1f<\/span><\/section>\n
\u5c31\u5b9a\u4e49\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4f60\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u4e3a\u6240\u6709\u60c5\u5883\u90fd\u505a\u597d\u51c6\u5907\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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06<\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\u79c1\u52df\u80a1\u6743\u7684\u201c\u94f6\u5f39\u201d\u65f6\u4ee3\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fc7\u53bb<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u5e03\u9c81\u5c14\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u90a3\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u7528\u8fd9\u4e2a\u89c6\u89d2\u6765\u770b\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u6211\u6700\u8fd1\u548cUBS\u8463\u4e8b\u957f\u79d1\u6797\u00b7\u51ef\u5229\u8d6b\uff08Colin Kelleher\uff09\u6709\u8fc7\u4e00\u6b21\u4ea4\u6d41\u3002\u4ed6\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u9274\u4e8e\u79c1\u52df\u80a1\u6743\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u4ee5\u53ca\u57fa\u91d1\u5230\u671f\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u6216\u8bb8\u4f1a\u670930,000 \u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u9700\u8981\u627e\u5230\u4e70\u5bb6\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u970d\u534e\u5fb7<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u597d\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u603b\u662f\u5728\u5bfb\u627e\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u201c\u94f6\u5f39\u201d\u2014\u2014\u4e00\u79cd\u80fd\u591f\u8ba9\u4ed6\u4eec\u65e0\u98ce\u9669\u81f4\u5bcc\u3001\u6c38\u4e0d\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e1c\u897f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u4f46\u6b63\u5982\u6211\u6bcd\u4eb2\u5e38\u8bf4\u7684\uff0c\u201c\u5e0c\u671b\u6c38\u8fdc\u4e0d\u4f1a\u7184\u706d\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u4ece2004\u5e74\u52302021\u5e74\uff0c\u79c1\u52df\u80a1\u6743\u88ab\u52a0\u5195\u4e3a\u6295\u8d44\u754c\u7684\u201c\u94f6\u5f39\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u6211\u57282022\u5e7412\u6708\u5199\u4e86\u4e00\u7bc7\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\uff0c\u6807\u9898\u662f\u300a\u6ca7\u6d77\u6851\u7530\u300b\uff08Sea Change\uff09\u3002\u6211\u5728\u91cc\u9762\u63d0\u5230\uff0c1980\u5e74\uff0c\u6211\u6709\u4e00\u7b14\u4e2a\u4eba\u94f6\u884c\u8d37\u6b3e\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u5bc4\u7ed9\u6211\u4e00\u5f20\u901a\u77e5\u5355\uff0c\u4e0a\u9762\u5199\u7740\uff1a\u201c\u60a8\u7684\u8d37\u6b3e\u5229\u7387\u73b0\u5728\u662f22.25%\u3002\u201d<\/span><\/section>\n
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07<\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

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\u6211\u57282016\u5e74\u5de6\u53f3\u5199\u8fc7\u4e00\u7bc7\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u6211\u4e0d\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e00\u53f0\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u53ef\u4ee5\u62ff\u5230\u4e94\u5bb6\u98ce\u6295\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u5546\u4e1a\u8ba1\u5212\u4e66\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u4e8b\u5148\u5224\u65ad\u51fa\u54ea\u4e00\u5bb6\u4f1a\u6210\u4e3a\u4e9a\u9a6c\u900a\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fd9\u9700\u8981\u72ec\u7279\u7684\u4eba\u7684\u6d1e\u5bdf\u529b\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u4e5f\u505a\u4e0d\u5230\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4ec5\u4ec5\u628a\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u4ece\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u4e2d\u79fb\u9664\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u628a\u51b3\u7b56\u6743\u4ea4\u7ed9\u4eba\u7c7b\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u81ea\u52a8\u89e3\u51b3\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4f46\u81f3\u5c11\uff0c\u5f53\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u63a5\u53d7\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5b9a\u6027\u5206\u6790\u4efb\u52a1\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u505a\u51fa\u8d85\u8d8a\u5e38\u4eba\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u7b2c\u4e8c\u70b9\u2014\u2014\u5b9a\u6027\u5206\u6790\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u5c31\u6574\u4e2a\u6295\u8d44\u884c\u4e1a\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u6700\u806a\u660e\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd480%\u3001\u751a\u81f390%\u7684\u4eba\u7c7b\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u90fd\u66f4\u5177\u6d1e\u5bdf\u529b\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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08<\/strong><\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\u8fd0\u6c14\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u548c\u5982\u4f55\u8ba9\u81ea\u5df1\u66f4\u8d70\u8fd0<\/span><\/strong><\/h1>\n

<\/h1>\n
\u5e03\u9c81\u5c14\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u8fd9\u4e5f\u5f15\u51fa\u4e86\u6211\u60f3\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u8bdd\u9898\u2014\u2014\u8fd0\u6c14\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8fd9\u4e2a\u884c\u4e1a\u91cc\uff0c\u627f\u8ba4\u8fd0\u6c14\u5728\u6210\u529f\u4e2d\u626e\u6f14\u91cd\u8981\u89d2\u8272\u7684\u4eba\u5e76\u4e0d\u591a\u3002\u800c\u6211\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u60f3\u95ee\u4f60\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u8fd0\u6c14\u5728\u4f60\u7684\u804c\u4e1a\u751f\u6daf\u4e2d\u626e\u6f14\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\u89d2\u8272\uff1f\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u4f60\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5982\u4f55\u624d\u80fd\u201c\u5e2e\u52a9\u81ea\u5df1\u53d8\u5f97\u5e78\u8fd0\u201d\uff1f<\/span><\/section>\n
\u970d\u534e\u5fb7<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0\u6211\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u575a\u5b9a\u7684\u201c\u8fd0\u6c14\u4fe1\u5949\u8005\u201d\u3002\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u5c31\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6700\u5e78\u8fd0\u7684\u4eba\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
2014\u5e741\u6708\uff0c\u6211\u5199\u4e86\u4e00\u7bc7\u5907\u5fd8\u5f55\uff0c\u6807\u9898\u662f\u300a\u8d70\u8fd0\u300b\uff08Getting Lucky\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u524d\u534a\u90e8\u5206\u5b8c\u5168\u5728\u8bb2\u6211\u5bf9\u8fd0\u6c14\u7684\u4fe1\u4ef0\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u81ea\u5df1\u6709\u591a\u4e48\u5e78\u8fd0\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u5728\u804c\u4e1a\u751f\u6daf\u4e2d\u9646\u7eed\u9047\u5230\u4e86\u6770\u51fa\u7684\u5408\u4f19\u4eba\u300230\u5e74\u524d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e00\u8d77\u521b\u529e\u4e86\u6a61\u6811\u8d44\u672c\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u8fc7\u53bb20\u5e74\u91cc\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5f00\u59cb\u5bf9\u80a1\u7968\u548c\u503a\u5238\u4e0d\u90a3\u4e48\u611f\u5174\u8da3\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u8f6c\u5411\u4e86\u201c\u53e6\u7c7b\u6295\u8d44\u201d\u3002\u800c\u78b0\u5de7\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u65e9\u5c31\u7ad9\u5728\u90a3\u91cc\u4e86\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ea\u662f\u53d1\u73b0\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u6211\u4eec\u64c5\u957f\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u5e76\u76f8\u4fe1\u81ea\u5df1\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9886\u57df\u8d5a\u94b1\uff0c\u4e8e\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u53bb\u505a\u4e86\u3002\u800c\u540e\u6765\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\uff1a\u201c\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u4f60\u4eec\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u3002\u201d<\/span><\/section>\n
\u5e03\u9c81\u5c14\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u90a3\u4e48\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5982\u4f55\u624d\u80fd\u201c\u5e2e\u52a9\u81ea\u5df1\u53d8\u5f97\u5e78\u8fd0\u201d\uff1f<\/span><\/section>\n
\u970d\u534e\u5fb7<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0\u5173\u4e8e\u8fd0\u6c14\uff0c\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u8bf4\u6cd5\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u53e5\u662f\uff1a<\/span>\u201c\u8fd0\u6c14\u5c31\u662f\uff0c\u5f53\u673a\u4f1a\u6765\u4e86\uff0c\u4f60\u521a\u597d\u5df2\u7ecf\u51c6\u5907\u597d\u4e86\u3002\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
\u6211\u4eec\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u67d0\u4e2a\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u672a\u6765\u800c\u523b\u610f\u505a\u51c6\u5907\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u80fd\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u73af\u5883\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\u65f6\u505a\u597d\u8fce\u63a5\u673a\u4f1a\u7684\u51c6\u5907\u3002\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u673a\u4f1a\u6765\u4e86\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u7ad9\u5728\u4e86\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u4e0a\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
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\u6211\u66fe\u8bb2\u8fc7\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u4e2a\u6545\u4e8b\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
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\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u8fd0\u6c14\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
\u4f46\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c<\/span>\u4eba\u751f\u5f80\u5f80\u5c31\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4f9d\u9760\u6df1\u601d\u719f\u8651\u3001\u7cbe\u5fc3\u89c4\u5212\u51fa\u5b8c\u7f8e\u7684\u8def\u5f84\u3002\u4f60\u9700\u8981\u62fc\u5c3d\u5168\u529b\uff0c\u52aa\u529b\u628a\u4e8b\u60c5\u505a\u597d\u3002\u800c\u672a\u6765\u5982\u4f55\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u5c06\u51b3\u5b9a\u4f60\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u4ece\u4e2d\u53d7\u76ca\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
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09<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\u6210\u529f\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u660e\u4e86\u771f\u6b63\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5<\/span><\/section>\n
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\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\u5e03\u9c81\u5c14\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u4eca\u5929\u751f\u6d3b\u7684\u5404\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6bcf\u5929\u90fd\u4f1a\u88ab\u5404\u79cd\u4fe1\u606f\u8f70\u70b8\u3002\u8fd9\u8ba9\u6211\u60f3\u8d77\u4e86T.S.\u827e\u7565\u7279\uff08T.S. Eliot\uff09\u7684\u8bd7\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6709\u4e00\u53e5\uff1a\u201c\u4fe1\u606f\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\uff0c\u77e5\u8bc6\u5374\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5c11\u3002\u201d<\/span><\/section>\n
\u9762\u5bf9\u5982\u6b64\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u4f60\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u5904\u7406\u7684\uff1f<\/span><\/section>\n
<\/section>\n
\u970d\u534e\u5fb7<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0\u7406\u89e3\u6570\u636e\u3001\u4fe1\u606f\u3001\u667a\u6167\u548c\u6d1e\u5bdf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u533a\u522b\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u4f60\u5fc5\u987b\u5c3d\u65e9\u63a5\u53d7\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e8b\u5b9e\u2014\u2014\u6210\u529f\u5e76\u4e0d\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u77e5\u6653\u4e00\u5207\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u638c\u63e1\u771f\u6b63\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
\u6211\u4ece\u5c0f\u5c31\u8bfb\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u65e5\u62a5\uff0c\u6bcf\u5929\u90fd\u4f1a\u770b\u3002\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u8d22\u62a5\u5b63\uff0c\u5f53\u4f60\u7ffb\u5f00\u62a5\u7eb8\uff0c\u4f1a\u770b\u5230\u4e00\u6574\u9875\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5217\u51fa\u8bb8\u591a\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u8425\u6536\u3001\u76c8\u5229\u548c\u6bcf\u80a1\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u8d22\u62a5\u5b63\u90fd\u4f1a\u670910\u300120\u300130\u300140\u300150\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u6570\u636e\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
\u6211\u4ee5\u524d\u4f1a\u8ba4\u771f\u67e5\u770b\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4f46\u5f88\u5feb\uff0c\u6211\u5c31\u4e0d\u518d\u770b\u4e86\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
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\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u4e00\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u53bb\u5e74\u8d5a\u4e8620\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u8d5a\u4e8630\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u597d\u4e8b\u8fd8\u662f\u574f\u4e8b\uff1f\u5982\u679c\u5e02\u573a\u539f\u672c\u9884\u8ba1\u5b83\u4eca\u5e74\u8fd8\u662f20\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u800c\u5b83\u8d5a\u5230\u4e8630\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4e00\u4e2a\u5de8\u5927\u60ca\u559c\u3002\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u662f40\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u800c\u5b83\u53ea\u8d5a\u4e8630\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u5927\u5931\u671b\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
\u4ec5\u4ec5\u77e5\u9053\u516c\u53f8\u8d5a\u4e8630\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u544a\u8bc9\u4f60\u4efb\u4f55\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u90a3\u6211\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8fd8\u8981\u6d6a\u8d39\u65f6\u95f4\u53bb\u770b\u8fd9\u4e9b\uff1f<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
\u4f60\u5fc5\u987b\u653e\u5f03\u5bf9\u7410\u788e\u7ec6\u8282\u7684\u8ffd\u6c42\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u4ee5\u4e3a\u638c\u63e1\u6240\u6709\u4e8b\u5b9e\u5c31\u610f\u5473\u7740\u201c\u4fe1\u606f\u5145\u8db3\u201d\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
\u4f60\u9700\u8981\u5b66\u4e60\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u4ece\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u548c\u8292\u683c\u90a3\u91cc\u5b66\u4e60\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u67e5\u7406\u00b7\u8292\u683c\u3002\u6211\u5f88\u5e78\u8fd0\u80fd\u548c\u4ed6\u76f8\u5904\u5f88\u591a\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u90fd\u4f4f\u5728\u6d1b\u6749\u77f6\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
\u4ed6\u66fe\u8bf4\u8fc7\uff1a<\/span><\/strong>\u201c\u667a\u6167\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u9760\u80cc\u8bf5\u4e00\u5806\u4e8b\u5b9e\u5f97\u6765\u7684\u3002\u201d<\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
\u6709\u4e00\u672c\u4e66\u53eb<\/span><\/strong>\u300a\u5df4\u83f2<\/span>\u7279\u4e4b\u9053\u300b\uff08The Warren Buffett Way\uff09\uff0c\u6211\u88ab\u9080\u8bf7\u4e3a\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u7248\u672c\u5199\u5e8f\u3002\u6211\u5199\u4e86\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u6807\u9898\u662f\u300a\u6c83\u4f26\u00b7\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u4e3a\u4f55\u72ec\u4e00\u65e0\u4e8c\uff1f\u300b\uff08The Exception: What Makes Warren Buffett, Warren Buffett?\uff09\u3002<\/span>
\n<\/span><\/section>\n
\u5728\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u8c08\u5230\u4e86\u4ed6\u4e0e\u4f17\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u70b9\u662f\uff1a\u4ed6\u80fd\u627e\u51fa\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u90a3\u51e0\u4ef6\u4e8b\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u6df1\u5165\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u8bd5\u56fe\u638c\u63e1\u6240\u6709\u7684\u4e8b\u5b9e\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u56de\u5230\u5b89\u5fb7\u9c81\u00b7\u9a6c\u514b\u65af\u548c\u201c\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u90fd\u80fd\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u5b9a\u91cf\u4fe1\u606f\u201d\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bdd\u9898\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\uff0c\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u51b3\u5b9a\u516c\u53f8\u672a\u6765\u6210\u8d25\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u6240\u4ee5\u6210\u529f\u7684\u5173\u952e\u662f\uff1a\u4f60\u9700\u8981\u975e\u51e1\u7684\u667a\u6167\u53bb\u627e\u51fa\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u90a3\u51e0\u4ef6\u4e8b\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u4ee5\u5353\u8d8a\u7684\u6d1e\u5bdf\u529b\u53bb\u9884\u6d4b\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u65b9\u5411\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
\u8fd9\u624d\u662f\u901a\u5f80\u6210\u529f\u7684\u9053\u8def\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u53d8\u6210\u4e00\u672c\u201c\u884c\u8d70\u7684\u767e\u79d1\u5168\u4e66\u201d\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/section>\n
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10<\/span><\/section>\n<\/section>\n
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\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u8ddf\u4eba\u751f\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u95ee\u9898<\/span><\/section>\n
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\u5e03\u9c81\u5c14 <\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u6700\u540e\u8fd8\u6709\u4e09\u4e2a\u7b80\u77ed\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u4f60\u8fd9\u8f88\u5b50\u9047\u5230\u8fc7\u7684\u6700\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u4eba\u662f\u8c01\uff1f<\/span><\/section>\n
\u970d\u534e\u5fb7<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0\u96c5\u5404\u5e03\u00b7\u7f57\u65af\u67f4\u5c14\u5fb7\uff08Jacob Rothschild\uff09\u3002\u4ed6\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u6770\u51fa\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\uff0c\u7cbe\u901a\u91d1\u878d\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u201c\u6587\u827a\u590d\u5174\u5f0f\u7684\u4eba\u7269\u201d\uff0c\u5bf9\u827a\u672f\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u670d\u52a1\u3001\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e8b\u52a1\u90fd\u6709\u6df1\u523b\u89c1\u89e3\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
\u6211\u4ece\u4ed6\u8eab\u4e0a\u5b66\u5230\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5728\u8bb8\u591a\u9886\u57df\u90fd\u4eab\u53d7\u4e0e\u4ed6\u7684\u4ea4\u6d41\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
\u6211\u5f88\u5e78\u8fd0\uff0c\u5728 2006 \u5e74\u52302018\u5e74\u7684\u5341\u4e8c\u5e74\u91cc\uff0c\u6211\u6bcf\u5e74\u6709\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u4f4f\u5728\u4f26\u6566\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u90a3\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u76f8\u5904\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
\u5e03\u9c81\u5c14\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u8981\u63a8\u8350\u4e00\u672c\u4f60\u6700\u559c\u6b22\u7684\u4e66\u7ed9\u4e00\u4f4d\u4eb2\u5bc6\u7684\u670b\u53cb\uff0c\u4f60\u4f1a\u63a8\u8350\u54ea\u672c\uff1f<\/span><\/section>\n
\u970d\u534e\u5fb7<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0\u6211\u4f1a\u63a8\u8350\u300a<\/span>\u91d1\u878d\u72c2\u70ed\u7b80\u53f2<\/span>\u300b\uff08<\/span>A Short History of Financial Euphoria<\/span>\uff09\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u662f\u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7\u80af\u5c3c\u65af\u00b7\u52a0\u5c14\u5e03\u96f7\u65af\uff08John Kenneth Galbraith\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u672c\u5f88\u8584\u7684\u4e66\uff0c\u6211\u559c\u6b22\u8584\u7684\u4e66\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u662f\u4e2a\u8bfb\u4e66\u5f88\u6162\u7684\u4eba\uff08\u7b11\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u5b83\u5927\u6982\u53ea\u6709100\u9875\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u8ba9\u6211\u6df1\u523b\u7406\u89e3\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u6781\u5927\u5730\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u6211\uff0c\u8ba9\u6211\u5f00\u59cb\u91cd\u70b9\u7814\u7a76\u5e02\u573a\u60c5\u7eea\u5bf9\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u6b63\u662f\u6211\u8fc7\u53bb 30 \u5e74 \u91cc\u4e00\u76f4\u575a\u6301\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u539f\u5219\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/span><\/section>\n
\u5e03\u9c81\u5c14\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u53ea\u80fd\u7ed9\u521a\u8fdb\u5165\u91d1\u878d\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u5e74\u8f7b\u4eba\u4e00\u4e2a\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u90a3\u4f1a\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f<\/span><\/section>\n
\u970d\u534e\u5fb7<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0\u8001\u5b9e\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5148\u5efa\u8bae\u4ed6\u4eec\u201c\u8003\u8651\u4e00\u4e0b\u81ea\u5df1\u662f\u5426\u771f\u7684\u60f3\u8fdb\u5165\u91d1\u878d\u884c\u4e1a\u201d\u3002\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u4ed6\u4eec\u51b3\u5b9a\u8981\u8fdb\u5165\uff0c\u6211\u4f1a\u544a\u8bc9\u4ed6\u4eec\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f5c\u5bb6\u53eb\u514b\u91cc\u65af\u6258\u5f17\u00b7\u83ab\u5229\uff08Christopher Morley\uff09\uff0c\u4ed6\u8bf4\u8fc7\u4e00\u53e5\u8bdd\uff0c\u6211\u5f88\u559c\u6b22\u5f15\u7528\uff1a\u201c\u6210\u529f\u53ea\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u2014\u2014\u90a3\u5c31\u662f\u80fd\u591f\u6309\u7167\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u8fc7\u4e00\u751f\u3002\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
\u8fd9\u53e5\u8bdd\u542c\u8d77\u6765\u5f88\u7b80\u5355\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u7684\u771f\u6b63\u542b\u4e49\u662f\uff1a\u5728\u9009\u62e9\u804c\u4e1a\u9053\u8def\u65f6\uff0c\u4f60\u4e0d\u5e94\u8be5\u88ab\u793e\u4f1a\u671f\u5f85\u3001\u670b\u53cb\u3001\u540c\u5b66\u3001\u7236\u6bcd\u7684\u671f\u671b\u6240\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5e94\u8be5\u5355\u7eaf\u4e3a\u4e86\u8d5a\u94b1\u800c\u8fdb\u5165\u67d0\u4e2a\u884c\u4e1a\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
\u4f60\u5e94\u8be5\u627e\u5230\u771f\u6b63\u80fd\u8ba9\u81ea\u5df1\u611f\u5230\u6ee1\u8db3\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002\u6211\u4e0d\u662f\u6307\u611f\u5b98\u4e0a\u7684\u4eab\u4e50\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6307\u80fd\u8ba9\u4f60\u4ea7\u751f\u6df1\u523b\u7684\u6210\u5c31\u611f\u548c\u5e78\u798f\u611f\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u8fd9\u5f88\u96be\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/section>\n
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\u7248\u6743\u58f0\u660e\uff1a<\/strong>\u672c\u5185\u5bb9\u7248\u6743\u5f52\u539f\u521b\u65b9\u6216\u539f\u4f5c\u8005\u6240\u6709\uff0c\u5982\u8f6c\u8f7d\u4f7f\u7528\uff0c\u8bf7\u6ce8\u660e\u6765\u6e90\u53ca\u4f5c\u8005\u3001\u6587\u5185\u4fdd\u7559\u6807\u9898\u539f\u9898\u4ee5\u53ca\u6587\u7ae0\u5185\u5bb9\u5b8c\u6574\u6027\uff0c\u5e76\u81ea\u8d1f\u7248\u6743\u7b49\u6cd5\u5f8b\u8d23\u4efb\u3002\u672c\u53f7\u8f6c\u8f7d\u6587\u7ae0\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u5df2\u83b7\u539f\u521b\u65b9\u6216\u539f\u4f5c\u8005\u6388\u6743\uff0c\u4f46\u90e8\u5206\u6587\u7ae0\u63a8\u9001\u524d\u6211\u4eec\u672a\u80fd\u4e0e\u539f\u521b\u65b9\u6216\u539f\u4f5c\u8005\u6210\u529f\u53d6\u5f97\u8054\u7cfb\uff0c\u82e5\u6d89\u53ca\u7248\u6743\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u8bf7\u901a\u8fc7\u672c\u53f7\u5fae\u4fe1\u540e\u53f0\u8054\u7cfb\u6211\u4eec\u3002<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n

\u8f6c\u81ea: \u9ad8\u6bc5\u8d44\u4ea7\u7ba1\u7406 https:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s\/jH3RfqL1L-Z91OVuBsP6XQ<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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