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1953\u5e74\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6\u83ab\u91cc\u65af\u00b7\u80af\u5fb7\u5c14\uff08Maurice Kendall\uff09\u5728\u4f26\u6566\u4e3a\u7687\u5bb6\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u4f1a\uff08Royal Statistical Society\uff09\u505a\u62a5\u544a\u3002\u6307\u51fa\u6839\u672c\u65e0\u6cd5\u9884\u6d4b\u5c0f\u9ea6\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c\u53ef\u80fd\u4e5f\u7b26\u5408\u8fd9\u4e2a\u539f\u7406\u3002\u90a3\u4e9b\u8ba4\u4e3a\u53ef\u4ee5\u9884\u6d4b\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u4eba\uff08\u6307\u7684\u662f\u80a1\u7968\u7ecf\u7eaa\u3001\u6295\u8d44\u987e\u95ee\u6216\u8005\u6295\u8d44\u7ecf\u7406\u4eba\uff09\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u5728\u81ea\u6b3a\u6b3a\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n 1900\u5e74\uff0c \u8def\u6613\u65af\u00b7\u5df4\u820d\u5229\u8036 \u5728\u300a\u6295\u673a\u7406\u8bba\u300b\u4e00\u6587\u4e2d\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u65e5\u5e38\u53d8\u52a8\u4ece\u6839\u672c\u4e0a\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u77e5\u7684\u3002\u5982\u679c\u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c\u53cd\u6620\u7684\u662f\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u4e00\u5207\u5df2\u77e5\u4fe1\u606f\u4ee5\u53ca\u6240\u6709\u5408\u7406\u63a8\u6d4b\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6839\u636e\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c\u672a\u6765\u7684\u53d8\u52a8\u5c31\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u77e5\u7684\u3002\u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4e3a\u4e86\u6ee1\u8db3\u5927\u4f17\u671f\u671b\u5c31\u4e0a\u6da8\u3002\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u4f18\u4e8e\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u9884\u671f\u65f6\uff0c\u5176\u4ef7\u683c\u624d\u4f1a\u4e0a\u6da8\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8868\u73b0\u6ca1\u8fbe\u5230\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u5c31\u4f1a\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c\u53d7\u5230\u4e00\u8fde\u4e32\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u77e5\u7684\u3001\u6216\u597d\u6216\u574f\u7684\u65b0\u95fb\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4f1a\u968f\u673a\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u8d2d\u4e70\u4e00\u53ea\u80a1\u7968\u7136\u540e\u7acb\u5373\u5c06\u5176\u5356\u6389\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4ed6\u7684\u8f93\u8d62\u6982\u7387\u662f\u76f8\u7b49\u7684\u3002\u5df4\u820d\u5229\u8036\u5199\u9053\uff1a\u201c\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6295\u673a\u8005\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u671f\u671b\u503c\u5c31\u662f0\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u77e5\u6027\u540c\u65f6\u53c8\u4f7f\u5176\u4ece\u67d0\u79cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u9884\u77e5\u2014\u2014\u4ece\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u89d2\u5ea6\u3002\u5df4\u820d\u5229\u8036\u575a\u4fe1\u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c\u5177\u6709\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u6027\u8d28<\/strong>\u3002(\u4e00\u4e2a\u9189\u6c49\u9760\u5728\u4e00\u6839\u706f\u67f1\u4e0a\u7761\u7740\u4e86\uff0c\u4ed6\u65f6\u4e0d\u65f6\u9192\u6765\u968f\u610f\u5411\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b9\u5411\u8e09\u8e09\u8dc4\u8dc4\u8d70\u51e0\u6b65\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u518d\u5012\u4e0b\u7761\u4e00\u4f1a\u513f\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u65e0\u9650\u91cd\u590d\u3002\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6beb\u65e0\u76ee\u7684\u6027\u7684\u65c5\u7a0b\u8fdb\u884c\u591a\u6b21\u540e\uff0c\u9189\u6c49\u79bb\u706f\u67f1\u6709\u591a\u8fdc\uff1f)<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u8d4c\u5f92\u5728\u6982\u7387\u6e38\u620f\u4e2d\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u6ce2\u52a8\u4e5f\u6784\u6210\u4e86\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\uff08\u5c5e\u4e8e\u5355\u5411\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8d22\u5bcc\u503c\u53ea\u80fd\u5411\u4e0a\u6216\u5411\u4e0b\u6ce2\u52a8\uff09\u3002\u8d4c\u5f92\u7684\u8d22\u5bcc\u503c\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u504f\u79bb\u539f\u59cb\u503c\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u8fdc\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u5bfc\u81f4\u7834\u4ea7\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u8428\u7f2a\u5c14\u68ee\u53d1\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u6bcf\u5929\u6bcf\u53ea\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u90fd\u662f\u4e58\u4ee5\u4e00\u4e2a\u968f\u673a\u56e0\u5b50\u6570\uff08\u50cf98%\u6216\u8005105%\uff09\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6309\u7167\u67d0\u4e2a\u968f\u673a\u5b9a\u91cf\u4e0a\u6da8\u6216\u8005\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u6a21\u5f0f\u79f0\u4e3a\u5bf9\u6570\u6b63\u6001\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\uff08log-normal random walk\uff09\u6216\u8005\u51e0\u4f55\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\uff08geometric random walk\uff09\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u907f\u514d\u4e86\u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c\u51fa\u73b0\u8d1f\u503c\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u6709\u6548\u5e02\u573a\u5047\u8bf4\u3002\u8be5\u5047\u8bf4\u6307\u51fa\u5e02\u573a\u975e\u5e38\u64c5\u4e8e\u8bbe\u5b9a\u516c\u5e73\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u80fd\u6bd4\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u83b7\u5f97\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u9664\u975e\u7eaf\u7cb9\u9760\u8fd0\u6c14\u3002\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5c24\u91d1\u00b7\u6cd5\u739b\uff08Eugene Fama\uff09\u4ece\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u5b9e\u8bc1\u4e24\u65b9\u9762\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e2a\u89c2\u70b9\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u6df1\u5165\u5f00\u53d1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n 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form\uff09\u6709\u6548\u5e02\u573a\u5047\u8bf4\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u5982\u4f55\u5229\u7528\u516c\u5171\u4fe1\u606f\u90fd\u662f\u65e0\u6cd5\u6218\u80dc\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201c\u5f3a\u5f0f\u201d\uff08strong form\uff09\u6709\u6548\u5e02\u573a\u5047\u8bf4\u63d0\u51fa\u5373\u4f7f\u4f60\u80fd\u591f\u4e86\u89e3\u5230\u8fd8\u672a\u516c\u5f00\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u4f60\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u6218\u80dc\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u201c\u5185\u5e55\u4ea4\u6613\u201d\u6beb\u65e0\u4ef7\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n 50\u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\uff0c\u9999\u519c\u5f00\u59cb\u5bf9\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u8fdb\u884c\u6df1\u5165\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u8fd9\u65e2\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u6ee1\u8db3\u4ed6\u7684\u6c42\u77e5\u6b32\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u8d5a\u94b1\u3002\u4ed6\u4e70\u4e86\u4e0a\u767e\u672c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u4e66\uff0c\u585e\u6ee1\u6574\u65743\u4e2a\u5927\u4e66\u67b6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u5361\u5c14\u00b7\u5f17\u91cc\u5fb7\u91cc\u5e0c\u00b7\u9ad8\u65af\uff08Carl Friedrich Gauss\uff09\u4e5f\u505a\u80a1\u7968\u751f\u610f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u5e74\u85aa\u4ec51000\u6cf0\u52d2\u7684\u745e\u58eb\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\u6b27\u62c9\u6b7b\u540e\u7559\u4e0b\u7684\u73b0\u91d1\u548c\u8bc1\u5238\u8d44\u4ea7\u5c45\u7136\u9ad8\u8fbe170587\u6cf0\u52d2<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u827e\u8428\u514b\u00b7\u725b\u987f\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u5357\u6d77\u8d38\u6613\u516c\u53f8\u65f6\u635f\u5931\u4e86\u5927\u7ea62\u4e07\u82f1\u9551<\/p>\n\n\n\n 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\u6548\u7528\u4e0e\u8d22\u5bcc\u7684\u5bf9\u6bd4\u56fe\u3002\u66f2\u7ebf\u7684\u5f62\u72b6\uff08\u4ee5\u53ca\u4f2f\u52aa\u5229\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u91d1\u94b1\u6536\u76ca\u4e0e\u65e2\u6709\u8d22\u5bcc\u6210\u53cd\u6bd4\u7684\u6cd5\u5219\uff09\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5bf9\u6570\u51fd\u6570\u3002\u4f2f\u52aa\u5229\u7684\u6982\u6d4b\u6cd5\u56e0\u6b64\u88ab\u79f0\u4f5c\u201c\u5bf9\u6570\u6548\u7528\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u82f1\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5a01\u5ec9\u00b7\u65af\u5766\u5229\u00b7\u6770\u6587\u65af\uff08William Stanley Jevons\uff0c1835\u20141882\uff09\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5bf9\u6570\u6548\u7528\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u6d88\u8d39\u54c1\u548c\u8d22\u5bcc\u2014\u2014\u201c\u968f\u7740\u4eba\u4eec\u751f\u6d3b\u5fc5\u9700\u54c1\uff08\u6bd4\u65b9\u8bf4\u666e\u901a\u98df\u54c1\u6570\u91cf\uff09\u7684\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u6240\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u6548\u7528\u6216\u8005\u5229\u76ca\u4f1a\u968f\u4e4b\u964d\u4f4e\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n 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1942\u5e74\uff0c\u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7\u6885\u7eb3\u5fb7\u00b7\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u5199\u9053\uff1a\u201c\u6709\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5bf9\u4f17\u591a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u5206\u522b\u8fdb\u884c\u5c0f\u989d\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u4e86\u89e3\u4e0d\u8db3\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u505a\u51fa\u51c6\u786e\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u6bd4\u628a\u5927\u7b14\u8d44\u91d1\u90fd\u6295\u5165\u5230\u4e00\u5bb6\u4f60\u975e\u5e38\u4e86\u89e3\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u8981\u5b89\u5168\u5f97\u591a\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6295\u8d44\u7b56\u7565\u8ba9\u6211\u89c9\u5f97\u6ed1\u7a3d\u81f3\u6781\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u9a6c\u79d1\u7ef4\u8328\u662f\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u7406\u8bba\u4e3b\u6d41\u5b66\u6d3e\u7684\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\uff0c\u56e0\u5747\u503c\u65b9\u5dee\u5206\u6790\u800c\u95fb\u540d\u3002\u9a6c\u79d1\u7ef4\u8328\u7528\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u6570\u636e\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u591a\u6837\u5316\u6295\u8d44\u2014\u2014\u8d2d\u4e70\u5927\u6279\u4e0d\u540c\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u6bcf\u53ea\u80a1\u7968\u6301\u6709\u91cf\u90fd\u4e0d\u592a\u591a\u2014\u2014\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u524a\u5f31\u98ce\u9669\u7684<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u62c9\u5854\u5185\u4e8e1959\u5e74\uff0c\u53d1\u8868 \u201c\u98ce\u9669\u6295\u8d44\u9009\u62e9\u51c6\u5219\u201d\uff08Criteria for Choice Among Risky Ventures\uff09\uff0c\u79f0\u4e3a\u51e0\u4f55\u5e73\u5747\u6570\u51c6\u5219\u3002\u4ed6\u8868\u660e\u8fd9\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u7f3a\u4e4f\u8fdc\u89c1\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n 1959\u5e74\uff0c\u54c8\u91cc\u00b7\u9a6c\u79d1\u7ef4\u8328\u51fa\u7248\u4e86\u8457\u4f5c\u300a\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u9009\u62e9\u300b<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u9a6c\u79d1\u7ef4\u8328\u662f\u552f\u4e00\u4e00\u4e2a\u770b\u5230\u51e0\u4f55\u5e73\u5747\u6570\u51c6\u5219\u4e2d\u5b58\u5728\u8bf8\u591a\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5927\u5bb6\u3002\u4ed6\u53d1\u73b0\u5747\u503c\u65b9\u5dee\u5206\u6790\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u9759\u6001\u7684\u5355\u5468\u671f\u7406\u8bba\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u5b83\u5047\u5b9a\u4f60\u73b0\u5728\u8ba1\u5212\u8d2d\u4e70\u4e00\u4e9b\u80a1\u7968\u5e76\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u6846\u67b6\u7ed3\u70b9\u5c06\u5176\u629b\u552e\u3002\u9a6c\u79d1\u7ef4\u8328\u7406\u8bba\u8bd5\u56fe\u5728\u5355\u5468\u671f\u5185\u5e73\u8861\u98ce\u9669\u4e0e\u6536\u76ca\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u9a6c\u79d1\u7ef4\u8328\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u51e0\u4f55\u5e73\u5747\u6570\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u6807\u51c6\uff08\u7b97\u6570\uff09\u5e73\u5747\u6570\u548c\u65b9\u5dee\u8fdb\u884c\u4f30\u7b97\u3002\u51e0\u4f55\u5e73\u5747\u6570\u7ea6\u7b49\u4e8e\u7b97\u6570\u5e73\u5747\u6570\u51cf\u53bb\u65b9\u5dee\u76841\/2\u3002\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5f15\u5165\u7edf\u8ba1\u5ea6\u91cf\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4f7f\u8fd9\u4e00\u4f30\u7b97\u503c\u66f4\u52a0\u7cbe\u786e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n 1960\u5e74\uff0c\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5bb6\u91cc\u5965\u00b7\u5e03\u96f7\u66fc\uff08Leo Breiman\uff09\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u6587\u7ae0\u300a\u6700\u4f73\u957f\u671f\u4f01\u4e1a\u6269\u5f20\u6295\u8d44\u7b56\u7565\u300b\u3002\u5e03\u96f7\u66fc\u662f\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u63d0\u51fa\u51e0\u4f55\u5e73\u5747\u6570\u6700\u5927\u5316\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u8fbe\u5230\u7279\u5b9a\u8d22\u5bcc\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u7f29\u81f3\u6700\u77ed\u7684\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u53ea\u6709\u5f53\u8d4c\u535a\u5229\u6da6\u53ef\u4ee5\u8fdb\u884c\u518d\u6295\u8d44\u65f6\uff0c\u51ef\u5229\u51c6\u5219\u624d\u80fd\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n 20\u4e16\u7eaa60\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e2d\u671f\uff0c\u9999\u519c\u5f00\u59cb\u5b9a\u671f\u5728\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u53ec\u5f00\u4f1a\u8bae\uff0c\u5c31\u79d1\u5b66\u6295\u8d44\u8fd9\u4e00\u8bae\u9898\u8fdb\u884c\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002\u53c2\u4f1a\u4eba\u5458\u6765\u81ea\u5404\u884c\u5404\u4e1a\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5305\u62ec\u4fdd\u7f57\u00b7\u8428\u7f2a\u5c14\u68ee\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u9999\u519c\u9610\u8ff0\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u901a\u8fc7\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u8d5a\u94b1<\/strong>\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u4ed6\u8ba9\u89c2\u4f17\u8bd5\u60f3\u4e00\u53ea\u4ef7\u683c\u968f\u673a\u4e0a\u4e0b\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u4e0a\u4e0b\u6ce2\u52a8\u5e76\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u6574\u4f53\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002\u7136\u540e\u628a\u4e00\u534a\u8d44\u91d1\u6295\u5165\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u534a\u653e\u5728\u201c\u73b0\u91d1\u201d\u8d26\u6237\u4e2d\u3002\u6bcf\u5929\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u90fd\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u6bcf\u5929\u4e2d\u5348\u4f60\u90fd\u8981\u201c\u8c03\u6574\u201d\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u4f60\u8981\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u6574\u4e2a\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\uff08\u80a1\u7968+\u73b0\u91d1\u8d26\u6237\uff09\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u4ece\u80a1\u7968\u6295\u8d44\u4e2d\u62bd\u51fa\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u52a0\u5230\u73b0\u91d1\u8d26\u6237\u6216\u8005\u4ece\u73b0\u91d1\u8d26\u6237\u62bd\u51fa\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u52a0\u5230\u80a1\u7968\u6295\u8d44\u5f53\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u4e0e\u6700\u521d\u80a1\u7968\u548c\u73b0\u91d1\u6295\u8d44\u5404\u4e00\u534a\u7684\u7ec4\u5408\u65b9\u5f0f\u4fdd\u6301\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u5728\u4ed6\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u4e2d\u662f\u5426\u7528\u5230\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u7b56\u7565\u7cfb\u7edf\uff1f\u201c\u6ca1\u6709\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ea4\u6613\u624b\u7eed\u8d39\u9ad8\u5f97\u80fd\u6740\u4e86\u4f60\u3002\u201d\u9999\u519c\u7b54\u9053<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u771f\u6b63\u60f3\u8981\u8d5a\u94b1\u7684\u4eba\u5e94\u8be5\u9075\u5faa\uff08\u666e\u901a\uff09\u51ef\u5229\u8d4c\u5f92\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\uff0c\u603b\u662f\u8ffd\u6c42\u6700\u5927\u51e0\u4f55\u5e73\u5747\u6570\u3002\u5f53\u51ef\u5229\u8d4c\u5f92\u88ab\u5141\u8bb8\u6309\u4efb\u4f55\u6bd4\u4f8b\u62c6\u5206\u8d44\u91d1\u603b\u989d\u6295\u5165\u73b0\u91d1\u8d26\u6237\u548c\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4f1a\u9009\u62e9\u4e00\u534a\u5bf9\u4e00\u534a\u7684\u62c6\u5206\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\u7684\u51e0\u4f55\u5e73\u5747\u6570\u6700\u5927\u3002\u9999\u519c\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\u662f\u51ef\u5229\u8d4c\u535a\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u7279\u4f8b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u9999\u519c\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u662f\u56fa\u5b9a\u6bd4\u4f8b\u8c03\u6574\u578b\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u793a\u4f8b\uff0c\u662f\u9a6c\u514b\u00b7\u9c81\u5bbe\u65af\u5766\uff08Mark Rubinstein\uff09\u548c\u5c24\u91d1\u00b7\u6cd5\u739b\u7b49\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u601d\u60f3\u3002\u9c81\u5bbe\u65af\u5766\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u6700\u4f73\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u603b\u662f\u56fa\u5b9a\u6bd4\u4f8b\u8c03\u6574\u578b\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u3002\u8981\u5b9a\u671f\u91cd\u65b0\u8c03\u6574\u80a1\u7968\u3001\u503a\u5238\u548c\u73b0\u91d1\u7684\u6301\u6709\u91cf\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u80fd\u8ba9\u4f60\u83b7\u5f97\u7a0d\u9ad8\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u8c03\u6574\u6536\u76ca<\/strong>\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u624b\u7eed\u8d39\u548c\u8d44\u672c\u6536\u76ca\u7a0e\u524a\u5f31\u4e86\u8fd9\u9879\u5229\u6da6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u8428\u7f2a\u5c14\u68ee\u7684\u654f\u9510\u4e4b\u5904\u5728\u4e8e\uff1a\u51ef\u5229\u8d4c\u5f92\u4e3a\u4e86\u5728\u96e8\u8fc7\u5929\u6674\u540e\u83b7\u5f97\u6700\u7ec8\u8d22\u5bcc\uff0c\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u8fdb\u884c\u4e70\u5356\u4ea4\u6613\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4ed6\u4eec\u771f\u6b63\u660e\u767d\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u5b9e\u8d28\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6709\u4e9b\u4eba\u5c31\u4e0d\u4f1a\u9009\u62e9\u505a\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u6b63\u5982\u51ef\u6069\u65af\u6240\u8bf4\uff0c\u957f\u8fdc\u6765\u8bb2\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u65e9\u665a\u90fd\u4f1a\u6b7b\u53bb\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u613f\u610f\u53bb\u627f\u62c5\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u751f\u4e4b\u5e74\u5bf9\u6211\u4eec\u9020\u6210\u4f24\u5bb3\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u8428\u7f2a\u5c14\u68ee\u8bf4\uff0c\u5728\u4f60\u671f\u671b\u83b7\u5f97\u6700\u5927\u5316\u957f\u7ebf\u6536\u76ca\u4e14\u4e0d\u627f\u62c5\u7834\u4ea7\u98ce\u9669\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u4f60\u6700\u597d\u786e\u5b9a\u8fd9\u786e\u5b9e\u662f\u4f60\u60f3\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4f60\u53ef\u80fd\u771f\u7684\u4f1a\u5b9e\u73b0\u8fd9\u4e2a\u613f\u671b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u5c3c\u5c14\u65af\u00b7\u54c8\u514b\u68ee1971\u5e74\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u300a\u8d44\u672c\u589e\u503c\u4e0e\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u5747\u503c\u65b9\u5dee\u6cd5\u300b\u5728\u6548\u7528\u7406\u8bba\u548c\u5747\u503c\u65b9\u5dee\u5206\u6790\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u5185\u5c06\u51ef\u5229\u548c\u62c9\u5854\u5185\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u91cd\u5851\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u57281972\u5e74\u548c1976\u5e74\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\uff0c\u54c8\u91cc\u00b7\u9a6c\u79d1\u7ef4\u8328\u8ba4\u4e3a\u957f\u7ebf\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u6548\u7528\u51fd\u6570\u5e94\u8be5\u4ee5\u590d\u5408\u6536\u76ca\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6839\u636e\u6700\u7ec8\u8d22\u5bcc\u503c\u8ba1\u7b97<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u884c\u4e3a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\u4eba\u4eec\u4e0d\u4ec5\u53d7\u7edd\u5bf9\u6536\u76ca\u548c\u635f\u5931\u7684\u9a71\u52a8\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u53d7\u5230\u5ac9\u5992\u5fc3\u7406\u7684\u9a71\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u751f\u547d\u662f\u77ed\u6682\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u80a1\u5e02\u6295\u8d44\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u8fdb\u5ea6\u7f13\u6162\u7684\u6e38\u620f\u3002\u4ee5\u83b7\u5f97\u77ed\u671f\u4ef7\u5dee\u4e3a\u76ee\u7684\u7684\u8bc1\u5238\u6295\u673a\u5546\u6bd4\u5178\u578b\u7684\u5c0f\u578b\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u66f4\u9002\u7528\u51ef\u5229\u7cfb\u7edf<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u8d4c\u5f92\u4eec\u5f88\u559c\u6b22\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\u5c31\u662f\u201c\u51cf\u534a\u51ef\u5229\u6a21\u5f0f\u201d\u3002\u4f60\u7684\u6295\u6ce8\u91d1\u989d\u603b\u662f\u51ef\u5229\u8d4c\u6ce8\u91d1\u989d\u7684\u4e00\u534a\u3002\u5b8c\u5168\u91c7\u53d6\u51ef\u5229\u51c6\u5219\u4e0b\u6ce8\u7684\u8d4c\u535a\u8005\u5728\u8d44\u91d1\u7ffb\u500d\u4e4b\u524d\u67091\/3\u7684\u6982\u7387\u906d\u9047\u8d44\u91d1\u51cf\u534a\u3002\u51cf\u534a\u5b9e\u884c\u51ef\u5229\u51c6\u5219\u7684\u8d4c\u535a\u8005\u5219\u53ea\u67091\/9\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5728\u8d44\u91d1\u7ffb\u500d\u4e4b\u524d\u906d\u9047\u8d44\u91d1\u51cf\u534a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n 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\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u83b7\u80dc\u5b63\u57281986\uff5e1987\u5e74\u3002\u51e0\u4e4e\u662f\u5728\u8d44\u91d1\u521a\u5f00\u59cb\u6d41\u5165\u65f6\uff0c\u672c\u7279\u548c\u4f0d\u5179\u5c31\u5f00\u59cb\u4e3a\u5229\u6da6\u5206\u914d\u800c\u4e89\u5435\u3002\u8f9b\u8fea\u52a0\u5206\u5d29\u79bb\u6790\uff0c\u6bcf\u4f4d\u5408\u4f19\u4eba\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u4e00\u4efd\u8f6f\u4ef6\u526f\u672c\u3002\u51e0\u5e74\u5185\uff0c\u672c\u7279\u3001\u4f0d\u5179\u548c\u897f\u8499\u65af\u90fd\u6210\u4e86\u5343\u4e07\u5bcc\u7fc1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201c\u4eba\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u662f\u5728\u8f6e\u76d8\u8d4c\u535a\u65f6\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5728\u4efb\u4f55\u5730\u65b9\u3001\u4efb\u4f55\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u90fd\u53ea\u4f1a\u7aed\u5c3d\u6240\u80fd\u4ece\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u90a3\u91cc\u652b\u53d6\u70b9\u4ec0\u4e48\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u514b\u52b3\u5fb7\u00b7\u9999\u519c\u4e8e2001\u5e742\u670824\u65e5\u53bb\u4e16\uff0c<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u7231\u5fb7\u534e\u00b7\u7d22\u666e\u57282002\u5e7410\u6708\u5173\u95ed\u4e86\u5c71\u810a\u7ebf\u5408\u4f19\u516c\u53f8<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u300a\u51fb\u8d25\u5e84\u5bb6\u300b 21\u70b9\u7684\u5236\u80dc\u7b56\u7565<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e66\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709\u4e9a\u5f53\u00b7\u65af\u5bc6\u7684\u300a\u56fd\u5bcc\u8bba\u300b\uff08The Wealth of Nations\uff09\u3001<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u7ea6\u7ff0\u00b7\u51af\u00b7\u8bfa\u4f9d\u66fc\u548c\u5965\u65af\u5361\u00b7\u6469\u6839\u65af\u7279\u6069\uff08Oskar Morgenstern\uff09\u7684\u300a\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u884c\u4e3a\u300b\uff08Theory of Games and Economic Behavior\uff09\u3001<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u4fdd\u7f57\u00b7\u8428\u7f2a\u5c14\u68ee\u7684\u300a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u300b\uff08Economics\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u5f17\u96f7\u5fb7\u00b7\u65bd\u97e6\u5fb7\uff08Fred Schwed\uff09\u300a\u5ba2\u6237\u7684\u6e38\u8247\u5728\u54ea\u91cc\u300b\uff08Where Are the Customers’ Yachts?\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u300a\u6218\u80dc\u5e02\u573a\u300b\uff081967\uff09\uff08Beat the Market\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n 1959 \u54c8\u91cc\u00b7\u9a6c\u79d1\u7ef4\u8328 \u300a\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u9009\u62e9\u300b <\/p>\n\n\n\n \u8fc8\u514b\u5c14\u00b7\u5218\u6613\u65af\uff08Michael Lewis\uff091989\u5e74\u7684\u81ea\u4f20\u300a\u8bf4\u8c0e\u8005\u7684\u6251\u514b\u724c\u300b<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u63d0\u53ca\u7684\u56fe\u4e66<\/h2>\n\n\n\n